“terrorism futures”

Robin Hanson reports:

I just produced the following draft (PDF), which tries a new statistical approach on the question of which side is “right” in a media controversy. I applied it to the coverage of PAM, but it might also apply it to other controversies.

The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market
The Policy Analysis Market (PAM), otherwise known as “terrorism futures,” burst into public view in a firestorm of condemnation on July 28, 2003, and was canceled the next day. We look the impression given of PAM by 396 media articles, and how that impression varies with six indicators of article information: mentioning someone with firsthand knowledge, time since the firestorm, article length, a news versus an opinion style, and periodical prestige and period. All six indicators significantly and substantially predict more favorable impressions of PAM. A multiple regression predicts that a two thousand word news article in a prestigious monthly publication one hundred days later that mentioned an insider would give a solidly favorable impression of PAM.

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immunizing against immune response

Carol Moore passes along a column by Harvey Wasserman which contains this:

Anti-Defamation League Director Abraham Foxman has played the holocaust card for the Republicans, saying “It is hideous, outrageous and offensive for Senator Byrd to suggest that the Republican Party’s tactics could in any way resemble those of Adolph Hitler and the Nazi Party.”

Because no republic could ever be corrupted, or because the scapegoats this time around are not Jews or Communists?

The yellow star lobby’s moral standing is based on having suffered an uniquely gross crime; it is thus motivated to oppose any dilution of that uniqueness, including any observation of warning signs that anything remotely similar could happen again.

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yet another unscientific measurement

I am nerdier than 72% of all people. Are you nerdier? Click here to find out!

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movies 1962

Jules et Jim (dir. Truffaut). It took me a long time to sort out that the one with an English name is French and the one with a French name is German. I find that in French a German accent sounds much like an English accent.

座頭市物語 (The Tale of Zatôichi) (#1; dir. Misumi). Good stuff. Unusual for the genre in that the hero draws his sword only about three times in all.

Lolita (dir. Kubrick).

続・座頭市物語 (The Tale of Zatôichi continues) (#2; dir. Mori). This is the shortest of the series (72 minutes) and a bit thin on story; but it is here that Ichi takes actions that will mark him as an outlaw, and also learns something of the woman he loved and lost.

Lawrence of Arabia (dir. Lean). I saw the first half before.

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evil metaphor

Ever wonder about the use of the word liquidation as euphemism for political murder? It’s not in Webster’s New International, 2d ed. of 1952.

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out of the frying-pan

Now that I’m not sick anymore, I’m bored!!

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au cinéma 1961

The Misfits (dir. John Huston). I dropped it after about forty minutes; it might be more enjoyable if I hadn’t read of its history. The script spends too much of the time exclaiming how wonderful the writer’s wife is. Clark Gable looks like the celeb of the week on a kid show: hold the famous smile for awhile, now frown avuncularly, now cock an eyebrow as fan service for any mothers or grandmothers who might be watching.

The Guns of Navarone (dir. J Lee Thompson). More nuanced than typical war movies of the time. — Gregory Peck has one embarrassing moment: contained fury is not something he sells well.

The Hustler (dir. Robert Rossen). The sequel The Color of Money (1986, dir. Scorsese) led me to expect a caper, not a damn sports-underdog story. I like caper movies.

West Side Story (dir. Robbins/Wise). Did the dances look less absurd when it was new? — I’d never have spotted Rita Moreno, so much younger here than I’ve seen her before.

The Comancheros (dir. Michael Curtiz, John Wayne). Amiably standard Western fare.

One, Two, Three (dir. Billy Wilder). Funny script, but most of the characters are one-note; I get tired of the constant shouting of Cagney (as Coca-Cola’s man in Berlin) and Buchholz (as a fervent young Communist swept up in circumstance).

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